Vic Lee:
If life is inevitably manipulated virtually, how should people survive in the jungles of technology?

Inevitable reality: To be empowered by AI

 

When it comes to technology, many people will first think of the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on our lives. 

 

Stanford did a study once; how likely are experienced doctors in the United States to be able to tell precisely what disease you have? That percentage is 60%. And the percentage that he can give an effective differential diagnosis or treatment plan in the case of accurately determining what disease you have is also 60%. But if AI is used, it can raise these two percentages to 90% -your disease will not be missed, misdiagnosed, or delayed. 

 

Patients are not the only ones whom AI impacts- People will find that a doctor who has worked for more than a decade may be at the same level of diagnosis and treatment as a newly graduated doctor. 

 

So what can they do about it? Maybe they need to reposition their role and do more research on new diagnostics or treatments. Or provide better services to patients, not by waiting to serve them when they are sick, but by engaging in health management to help them reduce the possibility of getting sick. 

 

It will also change the way pharmaceutical companies operate. Now, one of the core competencies of a pharmaceutical company is its relationship with doctors. After the launch of new drugs, pharmaceutical companies need to cooperate with doctors to conduct real-world studies to solve the problems encountered in medication use by doctors. When doctors and hospitals get better service and support, they will adopt its drugs more often. Then it will be able to have more revenue to support more research, forming a virtuous closed loop. 

 

With artificial intelligence, pharmaceutical companies will find that they need to put more effort into R&D and compete openly and transparently with other pharmaceutical companies' drugs because your relationship with your doctor is not necessarily one of the most important aspects anymore. 

 

Similarly, health insurers will no longer be able to use the diagnosis, treatment, and reimbursement data they have as a competitive barrier. Hospitals will help the individual health insurer effectively control spending after applying artificial intelligence to the diagnostic and treatment process. Health insurers may need to get closer to their customers and develop personalized insurance products or work more closely with medical technology companies to develop better treatment technologies. 

 

Medical regulators will also need to adjust the scope and focus of regulation accordingly to include artificial intelligence companies to avoid harming the whole society due to conflicts of interest. Artificial intelligence companies also need to balance social values with their intellectual property and commercial interests in their interactions with regulators and various stakeholders. 

 

From this example, you can see that a slight advancement in AI can hugely impact the whole ecosystem.

 

Of course, AI has entered every aspect of our lives, not just healthcare. A study by McKinsey many years ago pointed out that by 2030, 50% of all jobs will be replaced by AI. 

 

Think about it, 50% of the jobs that were replaced served initially many people, and now these people need to rely on the services of robots. Your life needs to be empowered by AI to live better in the future. It may not be easy to survive if you do not use artificial intelligence. 

 

It's like we can't leave our mobile phones now. If you go to a job interview and tell your employer that they won't be able to find me after work, no one will hire you. You also need to use the phone to get information and contact the outside world on time. Without mobile phones, you will be disconnected from the real world and not competitive. 

 

Similarly, you may need to use AI in the future to be competitive enough to survive in society. So, it's not a question of whether to choose, but how far you want to go. 

 

Some people who want to be more competitive may do it very aggressively. Some may want to replace a leg with a robot leg, and some have said they want to implant a chip in their brain. In the future, I'm sure it will happen. 

 

Inevitable reality: survival in the virtual world and the joy and sorrow of being manipulated by the virtuality 

 

Social networks and personal online media are now well developed. More and more people use online tools to tap into knowledge and resources online. Shortly, the existence of the virtual world will become more and more part of ourselves. Combining their words and actions in the real and virtual worlds is important to understand a person entirely. Each person may have one or more avatars in the virtual world that will influence your image, identity, and influence in this world and help you access resources and knowledge. 

 

When we discover that our abilities rely heavily on artificial intelligence and that a large part of our lives takes place in the virtual world, our trajectory is influenced by the virtual world. 

 

I was recently decorating my house. When I was shopping on Taobao, I saw that it recommended me a rug that fit my design ideas perfectly. It probably found that I browsed many design websites and knew what style I liked. When I didn't know what I needed, "it" had already figured it out. 

 

Shopping, news, travel, consumption, music, videos contents, etc., are recommended by the algorithm for you are influencing your likes and dislikes, life trajectory, and even values and beliefs. This part of the influence may sometimes be invisible to everyone, but it already exists. If we carefully examine it, we will find that a slight change in the algorithm may change the trajectory of our lives. 

 

Paradigm shift: the polarization of influence and the disappearance of order

 

As we rely more and more on technology, some basic assumptions about how the world works may change. 

 

Here, I would like to borrow an academic term called "paradigm shift". A paradigm is a consensus on some basic theory in a certain field. Based on this consensus, people carry out further theory construction or development. When the basic consensus changes, many of the rules built on it will change. 

 

For example, the most typical example is the geocentric and heliocentric controversy. If you lived in a time when geocentrism was dominant, would you believe that heliocentrism was correct? This change in belief profoundly affected religion, astronomy, physics, navigation, trade, culture, and even the order of the entire world. 

 

I cite this concept to say that advances in technology will bring about a series of changes in fundamental assumptions that will significantly impact the way the world works. 

 

One of these is that human influence will be polarized. After nearly 80 years after World War II, the world has experienced events such as colonial independence, affirmative action, welfare systems, and financial regulatory reform. The general trend is for everyone to become more and more equal. But unfortunately, technology may shift that trend. 

 

For users of technology, is what they have in the virtual world really what they own? The person who controls the technology simply changes the algorithm or rules slightly, and what others have will become worthless. 

 

Many people with technological influence can constantly extend and expand their influence. They can extend from recommending you a small video advertising goods to influencing what you buy; from recommending what medicine you buy to influencing which doctor you see; from recommending you health insurance products to influencing what financial services you use; from recommending what financial services you use to influencing your perception of the world economy, and even how this society works. 

 

When these influences are in the hands of just a few, it becomes a game for the few. The "rules of the game" become unpredictable because of the diversity and variability of individuals' knowledge, experience, emotions, and values. 

 

Paradigm shift: progress is fragile and reversible

 

The absence of order will breed conflict. People don't necessarily agree with all of what Jared Diamond tells us in Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies. But I believe that natural disasters and plagues, divergent interests between nations, and changes in power due to technology and productivity are all aspects that trigger conflict. 

 

The impact of technology on the world will be enormous when conflict occurs, thanks to its powerful influence. Perhaps you will face a world in which order is constantly challenged and shaken. 

 

The world order after World War II is constantly improving. But as more and more conflicts emerge, progress may stop or even be reversed. The gains made by progress become increasingly fragile and subverted. 

 

Of course, everyone may define progress differently. My understanding of progress is that people are becoming more materially rich, that there are more diverse spiritual choices and mutual tolerance, and that there is more goodwill and less hostility between people and countries. 

 

Over the past seven or eight decades, the world has continued developing and progressing. Many people believe that human society is always moving forward, but it may not be. Development and progress can alleviate or obscure many problems. But for a long time to come, there may no longer be a long-term trend of unilateral progress. Many issues will become acute, which will, in turn, further impede progress. 

 

The ways to survive in the technology jungle

 

The barriers are getting higher and higher, and it is more and more challenging to achieve success. The rules of the game can change at any time, and the results achieved can be overturned. How to survive in the crisis-ridden technology jungle? We can find a way out from several aspects, such as cognition, capability, and motivation. 

 

First, we need to have a comprehensive view and the ability to think at a higher level. 

 

The example I often give is the development of the music industry over the past two decades. Before the emergence of online music services, users needed to spend one or two hundred yuan to buy a CD to listen to music. But there were ten songs on a CD, and maybe only one song was my favorite. I wasn't willing to pay 100 yuan for the whole CD, but I was willing to pay 10 yuan for that one song. Someone tried to dismantle the songs and sell them online, hoping that more people would be willing to spend money on music. 

 

Later, these companies discovered that the Chinese people are strange; they don't like to pay for music for themselves but are willing to pay for others. For example, they were buying background music for personal blogs or paying to set up mobile phone ring tones, which gave rise to another business model. 

 

This model didn't make much money, so the creators went to study how record companies made money. They found it hard for the record companies to make money from CD sales because piracy was too serious. Their business model started to change to make a singer popular first and then let him participate in the various shows and advertising endorsements. So, making these singers popular has become a key part of this model. These companies thought they could make an online music media to promote singers through music charts or organize singer competitions. 

 

But as more singers come, they find it difficult to monopolize all singer resources, as listeners will have more choices. But on the other hand, when people who listen to music have many choices, they don't know what songs to choose or even what they like to listen to. So, the familiar patterns of music streaming began to emerge. 

 

When the online music industry started, you were probably just an engineer. You could start your own business because you had mastered some audio codecs and network transmission technology. But as the industry kept evolving, you must have enough knowledge of different Internet application scenarios, content distribution, media operations, user habits, different business models, and upstream and downstream industries. What you need are more comprehensive capabilities. It's hard for anyone in the world to know all of this. 

 

Then how do we survive in the ever-changing and evolving world? Firstly, I think we need to have a comprehensive perspective and develop an understanding of the complexity and interrelationship of the issues. To achieve this, we must have an open mind, learn from others, and overcome our blind spots. The second is to cultivate high-level thinking ability, which means constantly reflecting on whether our learning methods and cognitive methods are defective or sufficient. 

 

More and more schools are implementing PBL (Problem Based Learning/Project Based Learning). However, most schools only look at students' knowledge or skills when evaluating courses. There is basically no assessment of how much students enjoy the process of exploring and solving problems. And that should be the essence of PBL. Students who develop a preference for exploring problems and enjoy the process will benefit for a lifetime. Many people's preference for hometown dishes is not natural but nurtured by the environment in their childhood. 

 

Second, it's about our capabilities. 

 

You'll know exactly what's wrong with your body's organs at my age. When I drink alcohol, my stomach hurts, I can't sleep at night, and I'm not in good spirits the next day. In the future, many of our abilities will depend on the virtual world, and technology will become a part of all of us, just like our organs. Are these "organs" vital enough? Do they need exercise? Do they have enough nutrition to function effectively? Are they obsolete? Are they damaged? Do they need surgery? Do they need to be replaced? We need to have the ability to examine, diagnose and treat the "organs" of technology. 

 

Third, it is important to have motivation in addition to cognition and capabilities. Willingness depends on how we see the world and where our happiness comes from. 

 

First, only by embracing change positively will we have a strong motivation. We will face many more setbacks in the future than we do now. Whether one becomes stronger or weaker after a setback depends on whether one has a positive mindset to embrace change and enjoy the process. 

 

Second, we must have the ability to reflect on ourselves. Happiness is built on freedom, freedom is built on the control of life, and control is built on the ability to reflect. We must constantly reflect on how much we rely on technology and the virtual world for the happiness we feel now and what choices we can have when the things we rely on are subverted. 

 

Finally, it is important to pursue the meaning of life. When we have achieved a certain level of success, we should pursue a higher ideal. Lasting happiness must come from pro-social values.

 

I believe that the success of a society should be the success of all ordinary people, not just the elite and influential. 

 

The ultimate question of happiness and freedom: what is "human" and what is "life"

 

But these questions may still be superficial. As we face increasing challenges and need to constantly use technology to strengthen ourselves to keep up with the changes of the times, we will one day be faced with choices that relate to more fundamental questions: what is meant by "human" and what is meant by "life". For example, 

 

Shall we take a medicine that can make us more focused on learning or working but at the same time may weaken our ability to feel the outside world? 

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Will you replace your hands, feet, or eyes or implant a chip in your brain to be stronger? 

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Will you diminish the ability to feel for the need to be more rational? Will you give up the ability to empathize with others? 

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Do you value the achievement of your goals more than you value the feeling of the process? 

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As a "stronger" person, are you still willing to tolerate the "sentimental" and "weak" ones who are unwilling to upgrade? 

 

I believe that in the coming decades, every student will continue to encounter such choices. These decisions all depend on how we see humans and see life. 

 

I like the words of the Austrian poet Rilke to a student, who said--